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Argus Research

Daily Spotlight: More Volatility in Crypto Markets

The approximately $2.0 trillion cryptocurrency market (Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, etc.) has been under pressure amid a high level of volatility and a risk-off move in the financial markets. For consumers, cryptocurrency can cut out the intermediary in a transaction of value. That said, we think crypto volatility is currently too high to consider paying for a tank of gas (or even a Tesla) with Bitcoin. For traders, the ups and downs of cryptocurrencies are a major opportunity — as long as they are on the right side of Elon Musk’s tweets or rapidly changing Chinese regulations. For investors, the main question is how far is crypto from becoming a mainstream security? We estimate that the global equity market capitalization is approximately $110 trillion. Gold is about $10 trillion. For crypto to make it on the radar for most investment managers’ asset-allocation models, we would expect to see it approximately triple in value to $5-$6 trillion. Then it could account for 2%-3% of total portfolio assets and could be used as a growth alternative. Also by then, there will be more uses for and regulations to define the asset class, and more fundamentals to support valuation.

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