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Reuters

U.S. yield curve inversion may be ‘false positive’ recession signal – Credit Suisse

A U.S. Treasuries yield curve inversion this time around may not be the perfect predictor of a recession, a Credit Suisse strategist said on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve’s focus on reducing inflation could take priority over economic growth concerns. Reflecting the U.S. central bank’s plans to hike interest rates, short-term government bond yields have risen more than long ones this year, flattening the curve. A curve inversion, particularly the one determined by comparing two-year and 10-year Treasury bonds, has in the past presaged recessions, as the market priced in expected rate cuts based on possible monetary policy actions that could damage the economy.

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